Landmark study sheds light on the psychological roots of incel beliefs and behaviors

A new study offers the most detailed picture yet of the men who identify as “incels,” short for involuntary celibates. Contrary to the widespread image of incels as violent extremists with far-right ideologies, the research reveals a more complex and diverse population. Conducted by psychologists and social scientists from Swansea University and the University of Texas at Austin, the study found that poor mental health and adherence to incel ideology are the strongest predictors of harmful beliefs—not political extremism or online engagement alone.

Incels are a loosely organized online community of men who believe they are unable to form sexual or romantic relationships despite wanting them. While many suffer in silence, the most vocal members often express anger, misogyny, and despair in online forums. A small number of mass attacks in recent years, including shootings and stabbings, have been linked to incel ideology, drawing growing concern from law enforcement and anti-extremism agencies in North America and Europe. In response, governments have begun to treat incel-inspired violence as a potential form of domestic terrorism.

But most of what is known about incels has come from analyzing public online posts, which can exaggerate extreme views and overlook the perspectives of quieter members. The new study, published in the journal Archives of Sexual Behavior, is the first to gather detailed responses from hundreds of incels using a confidential survey.

“The experience of singlehood—and how people cope with it—is a fascinating and underexplored area from an evolutionary psychological perspective,” said study author Andrew G. Thomas, an associate professor at Swansea University and senior associate editor of Advances in Cognitive Psychology.

“Much of the existing evolutionary psychology research has focused on people in relationships, mate selection, or sex differences in mating strategies. Far less attention has been given to individuals who are struggling with prolonged singlehood, even though evolutionary theory has a lot to say about these experiences. So that peaked my interest.”

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“Second, we were drawn to the topic of incels because this group often references or misappropriates evolutionary psychological findings to support their ideology. That raised an important question for us: How accurate are these interpretations, and how do incels themselves make sense of their situation?”

“When we started reviewing the research on incels, we noticed a real gap in high-quality, empirical work,” Thomas explained. “Much of the existing literature consists of opinion pieces or a few qualitative studies. The quantitative studies that do exist often rely on scraping data from online forums. But this approach has serious limitations—one being that a small number of users (around 10%) generate the majority of the content, which skews the data and presents a narrow picture.”

“So we saw an opportunity to conduct a more rigorous, large-scale study—one that captures incels’ own perspectives on their experiences in a more representative and nuanced way.”

The researchers used a framework known as the “3N model” of radicalization, which focuses on three factors: unmet psychological needs, exposure to ideological narratives, and participation in reinforcing social networks. They then expanded this model to include early life experiences and personality traits that might predispose someone to become an incel or to embrace harmful attitudes once they are involved in the community.

Participants were recruited from incel forums, social media, and podcasts, with some help from moderators of large online communities. Respondents had to live in the UK or US, be at least 18 years old, and identify as incels. The researchers made several efforts to ensure anonymity and increase trust, including offering the option to donate participation payments to a mental health charity.

The study sample was diverse in terms of ethnicity, socioeconomic background, and education. Most were in their mid-20s, and while they tended to be single, unemployed, or living with parents, nearly half were either working full-time or attending school. Politically, they leaned slightly left of center on average, challenging the popular belief that most incels are aligned with the far right.

“Our research really challenges the common stereotypes about who incels are,” Thomas told PsyPost. “The media often portrays incels as very young, white, politically far-right, and socially isolated—unemployed or not in education or training. But our data tells a more nuanced story. While the average age is 26, there’s a wide age range. Around 40% identify as ethnic minorities, many are well-educated, and a significant number are in full-time work. Politically, they actually trend slightly to the left, which also goes against popular assumptions. So, overall, there’s far more diversity in this group than the prevailing stereotypes suggest.”

Respondents completed a wide range of psychological and behavioral assessments. These included measures of depression, anxiety, loneliness, rejection sensitivity, and childhood experiences of bullying or abuse. The researchers also assessed endorsement of incel ideology, beliefs about discrimination against incels, and agreement with statements justifying violence. Social networking questions covered the ways participants interacted with other incels, such as through anonymous forums, video calls, or messaging platforms.

The findings confirmed that mental health problems are widespread in the incel population. About a third of participants met criteria for moderate to severe depression or anxiety, and nearly half reported intense loneliness. Around 30% scored above the threshold on a screening tool for autism. A substantial number also reported traumatic childhood experiences, including bullying and abuse.

“Incels are typically framed in terms of the threat they pose to others, but our findings suggest they may be just as dangerous, if not more so, to themselves,” said co-author William Costello, a researcher in psychology at the University of Texas at Austin. “The extraordinarily high rates of suicidal ideation in our sample were among the most alarming findings and demand urgent attention. Likewise, the prevalence of autism traits was much higher than in the general population, pointing to the need for greater clinical attention to neurodiversity within this group.”

When it came to beliefs, about two-thirds of participants agreed that an “incel ideology” exists and said they personally believed in it. The most widely endorsed belief was the so-called “80/20 rule,” which claims that 80% of women are only attracted to the most attractive 20% of men. Incels frequently viewed feminists, women, the political left, and broader society as hostile toward them. Although only 25% said violence was sometimes or often justified against those who harm incels, this figure is significantly higher than general population benchmarks.

One of the study’s most striking results was the identification of two distinct pathways leading to harmful beliefs. The first, called the “dispositional extremism” pathway, was characterized by higher scores on traits like psychopathy and narcissism, as well as more right-wing views. These individuals were more likely to endorse misogynistic beliefs and justify violence.

The second pathway, described as “psychosocial vulnerability,” included those with autism traits, histories of bullying, and low self-perceived mate value. These individuals were more likely to be deeply lonely, to participate in incel communities for support, and to adopt harmful beliefs over time as their mental health declined. This group, the authors argue, is especially at risk of self-harm and suicide, and may benefit from mental health interventions that boost confidence, social skills, and dating competence.

In fact, suicidal ideation may pose a greater immediate threat than outward violence. About 20% of the sample reported thinking about suicide every day. The researchers note that failed romantic or sexual relationships, combined with feelings of being a burden to others, are strong risk factors for suicide among men. These same conditions, they say, may also contribute to the small number of incel-related mass attacks, which often end in the attacker’s death.

The researchers found that poor mental health and strong ideological beliefs were the best predictors of harmful attitudes. While time spent networking with other incels was also linked to those beliefs, it was a much weaker predictor. The data suggest that people drawn to incel forums are often already struggling—and that the forums may reinforce harmful thinking, but are not the primary cause of it.

“We identified two main pathways into the incel identity,” Thomas said. “One pathway is shaped by internal struggles—poor social skills, low self-esteem, and a history of bullying. The other pathway is more external and ideological, involving antisocial personality traits (like those in the dark triad) and extreme right-wing political views. And while, on average, incels trend slightly left of center, that second pathway shows that there’s still a subset of individuals with much more extreme views.”

“Recognizing these two distinct pathways is important because it suggests that different kinds of interventions may be needed depending on what’s drawing someone into the incel community in the first place.”

To explain these findings, the authors propose what they call the “dual pathways hypothesis of incel harm.” It suggests that incels with traits like narcissism and far-right political leanings may adopt misogynistic beliefs as a way of asserting dominance. In contrast, incels who are more socially isolated and emotionally vulnerable may turn to ideology as a coping mechanism for repeated rejection and exclusion.

“We found provisional evidence of a bidirectional relationship between mental health and ideology: the worse someone’s mental health is, the more strongly they seem to adhere to the ideology—and vice versa,” Thomas said. “As someone becomes more immersed in the ideology, their mental health appears to deteriorate. That feedback loop was really striking.”

“From an intervention standpoint, this is important. Ideologies are notoriously difficult to challenge directly. People are usually very resistant to letting go of deeply held worldviews. But mental health is often a more accessible entry point—people are generally more open to receiving support in that area. What’s also interesting is that poor mental health and rigid ideological thinking often share similar cognitive distortions. So when I saw this link, I thought: this might be a way in. By offering generic mental health support, we might indirectly help reduce adherence to harmful ideologies—without confronting them head-on.”

While the study offers unprecedented insight, it is not without limitations. Its cross-sectional design means it cannot establish causality.

“While this was the largest study on incels to date—and we took strong steps to ensure data quality and authenticity—it’s still cross-sectional in nature,” Thomas noted. “That means the bidirectional relationship we observed between mental health and ideology is statistical, not causal. Without longitudinal data, we can’t yet say with certainty what causes what. And currently, there’s been no longitudinal research on incels at all.”

“That said, we did take care to verify that participants were real individuals. We used a third-party payment provider, which meant we couldn’t see any personal details, but we could still ensure that responses came from actual people and not bots or repeat participants. So in terms of primary data quality, this study really sets a new standard.”

“Another limitation is that we focused exclusively on gathering the largest possible sample of self-identified incels, which meant we didn’t include a comparison group—such as non-incel men or men from other areas of the manosphere,” Thomas continued. “That’s something future research should explore, because it would allow us to isolate what’s specific to incel psychology versus what might be more broadly shared across similar groups.”

“For example, we know that extreme right-wing groups often target young men who are socially excluded or have a history of bullying—traits we identified in one of our pathways into inceldom. So it’s possible that what we’re really seeing are general pathways into ideological vulnerability, not something unique to incels.”

“In short, while the study breaks new ground, there’s definitely room to build on this work, particularly with longitudinal research and broader comparative samples.”

Despite the limitations, the research marks a major step forward in understanding a subculture that is often shrouded in fear and stigma. By focusing on mental health, social isolation, and the role of ideology, the findings challenge simplistic portrayals of incels as a monolithic group and open the door to more compassionate, evidence-based responses. Future research may help refine interventions, test the dual pathways hypothesis, and explore how similar patterns might emerge in other online communities centered on male identity and grievance.

“Our next major goal is to conduct a large-scale longitudinal study to track the development of incel ideology over time,” Thomas told PsyPost. “We want to understand how this ideology evolves—how it’s shaped by engagement with online forums, by exposure to other parts of the manosphere, and by personal life circumstances. We’re also interested in identifying protective factors—what helps some people avoid getting pulled deeper into these belief systems.”

“Beyond that, we’re turning our attention to interventions. Our current study identified two distinct pathways into incel identity: one rooted in social exclusion and low self-esteem, and the other linked to antisocial personality traits and extreme right wing views. These pathways point to very different intervention needs. What works for someone dealing with loneliness and a history of bullying will look very different from what’s needed for someone with dark triad traits and extremist beliefs.”

“As a clinician, I also work one-on-one with incel clients—but that kind of support doesn’t scale well,” Thomas said. “So, we’re now exploring simple, scalable interventions that could be delivered to larger groups. These might include behavioral disengagement strategies or even AI-supported tools. We’ve got several ideas in the pipeline.”

“It’s also worth noting that while some incels are firmly entrenched in the ideology and resistant to help—often describing themselves as having “accepted their fate”—others are actively seeking support. We regularly hear from incels who want change, and we want to develop interventions that can genuinely serve that group.”

“Looking ahead, we’re also keen to broaden the scope of our research to include other communities within the manosphere—such as pick-up artists, Men Going Their Own Way (MGTOW), and related groups,” Thomas explained. “Understanding how these ideologies overlap and differ will help us build a more comprehensive picture of male identity and vulnerability in the digital age.”

The study, “The Dual Pathways Hypothesis of Incel Harm: A Model of Harmful Attitudes and Beliefs Among Involuntary Celibates,” was authored by William Costello, Joe Whittaker, and Andrew G. Thomas.